Graduate School of North American Studies
John F Kennedy-Institut für Nordamerikastudien
Daniel Dieckelmann is a PhD candidate of Economics at the John F. Kennedy Institute of Freie Universität Berlin.
His research fields are Macro-Finance, Economic History, Financial Stability, and Systemic Risk.
With a double background in Information Systems and Economics, Daniel is further interested in machine learning and the history of economic thought. His current research explores the quantitative history of banking crises and the possibility of their prediction.
Daniel has worked for the European Central Bank and in the financial sector. He is Vice President of a prop-tech start-up based in Tel Aviv.
During his PhD studies, Daniel has been hosted by Cornell University, the Bank of Israel, and the Institute of New Economic Thinking for research stays.
Download Daniel’s CV here.
2018-2019 / 2020:
Money, Banking, and Financial Crises: A historical North American perspective.
Intermediate undergraduate economics, Freie Universität Berlin
Undergraduate economics, Heidelberg University
Prof. Dr. Max Steinhardt, Freie Universität Berlin (First advisor)
Prof. Matthew Baron, PhD, Cornell University (Second advisor)
Prof. Dr. Moritz Schularick, University of Bonn
Priv.-Doz. Dr. Till Strohsal, Freie Universität Berlin
Laissez Faire or Laissez Faire Faillite? 150 Years of Bank Bailouts
Job Market Paper
Work in progress.
The Historical Banking Crisis Database, 1870-2016
with Matthew Baron, Cornell University
Work in progress.
Cross-Border Lending and the International Transmission of Banking Crises
Collaboration with the Bank of Israel
Abstract: This paper introduces a new transmission channel of banking crises that works through banks' cross-border asset-side exposure in direction from recipient countries to lending countries. Sizable cross-border bank claims on foreign countries with high probability of domestic systemic risk function as a channel of contagion to the home economy. This asset-side approach stands in contrast to traditional views that see banking crises either as a result of domestic boom-bust dynamics or of cross-border borrowing in foreign currency. In this study, the probability of banking crisis in a country is explained by both domestic and foreign factors. I show that policymakers can significantly enhance current early warning models by incorporating exposure-based risk. I propose a combined model of domestic and exposure-based risk that outperforms traditional approaches both in and out-of-sample. In application to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, I find that low banking exposure to highly leveraged foreign economies explains the observed resilience of many small open economies.
Boom Bust Whom? Disaggregated private credit in the United States, 1896-2017.
Abstract: This paper examines whether the functional differentiation of private credit matters with respect to financial stability and economic growth. I present new historical data on total private credit to the non-financial sector in the United States for the past 120 years. The new series is disaggregated by type of borrower (household, businesses) and by type of loan (mortgage, non-mortgage). I find that no single credit components outperforms the others in predicting financial crises. However, total private credit levels above 80% rapidly increase their probability. Household non-mortgage credit has a positive short-term effect on income growth that is offset by a subsequent negative effect over the medium run. Business non-mortgage credit depresses income growth and puts the economy on a lower output level. Reversely, income growth induces growth in business debt, especially after the Second World War. The effects of mortgage credit remain ambiguous both in terms of financial stability and economic growth.